{"id":7154,"date":"2021-02-01T12:58:19","date_gmt":"2021-02-01T12:58:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/obcanskymonitoring.cz\/?p=7154"},"modified":"2021-02-01T12:58:20","modified_gmt":"2021-02-01T12:58:20","slug":"odhad-daleke-budoucnosti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/obcanskymonitoring.cz\/?p=7154","title":{"rendered":"Odhad dalek\u00e9 budoucnosti"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"pvc_clear\"><\/div><p class=\"pvc_stats total_only \" data-element-id=\"7154\" style=\"\"><i class=\"pvc-stats-icon medium\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" version=\"1.0\" viewBox=\"0 0 502 315\" preserveAspectRatio=\"xMidYMid meet\"><g transform=\"translate(0,332) scale(0.1,-0.1)\" fill=\"\" stroke=\"none\"><path d=\"M2394 3279 l-29 -30 -3 -207 c-2 -182 0 -211 15 -242 39 -76 157 -76 196 0 15 31 17 60 15 243 l-3 209 -33 29 c-26 23 -41 29 -80 29 -41 0 -53 -5 -78 -31z\"\/><path d=\"M3085 3251 c-45 -19 -58 -50 -96 -229 -47 -217 -49 -260 -13 -295 52 -53 146 -42 177 20 16 31 87 366 87 410 0 70 -86 122 -155 94z\"\/><path d=\"M1751 3234 c-13 -9 -29 -31 -37 -50 -12 -29 -10 -49 21 -204 19 -94 39 -189 45 -210 14 -50 54 -80 110 -80 34 0 48 6 76 34 21 21 34 44 34 59 0 14 -18 113 -40 219 -37 178 -43 195 -70 221 -36 32 -101 37 -139 11z\"\/><path d=\"M1163 3073 c-36 -7 -73 -59 -73 -102 0 -56 133 -378 171 -413 34 -32 83 -37 129 -13 70 36 67 87 -16 290 -86 209 -89 214 -129 231 -35 14 -42 15 -82 7z\"\/><path d=\"M3689 3066 c-15 -9 -33 -30 -42 -48 -48 -103 -147 -355 -147 -375 0 -98 131 -148 192 -74 13 15 57 108 97 206 80 196 84 226 37 273 -30 30 -99 39 -137 18z\"\/><path d=\"M583 2784 c-38 -19 -67 -74 -58 -113 9 -42 211 -354 242 -373 16 -10 45 -18 66 -18 51 0 107 52 107 100 0 39 -1 41 -124 234 -80 126 -108 162 -133 173 -41 17 -61 16 -100 -3z\"\/><path d=\"M4250 2784 c-14 -9 -74 -91 -133 -183 -95 -150 -107 -173 -107 -213 0 -55 33 -94 87 -104 67 -13 90 8 211 198 130 202 137 225 78 284 -27 27 -42 34 -72 34 -22 0 -50 -8 -64 -16z\"\/><path d=\"M2275 2693 c-553 -48 -1095 -270 -1585 -649 -135 -104 -459 -423 -483 -476 -23 -49 -22 -139 2 -186 73 -142 361 -457 571 -626 285 -228 642 -407 990 -497 242 -63 336 -73 660 -74 310 0 370 5 595 52 535 111 1045 392 1455 803 122 121 250 273 275 326 19 41 19 137 0 174 -41 79 -309 363 -465 492 -447 370 -946 591 -1479 653 -113 14 -422 18 -536 8z m395 -428 c171 -34 330 -124 456 -258 112 -119 167 -219 211 -378 27 -96 24 -300 -5 -401 -72 -255 -236 -447 -474 -557 -132 -62 -201 -76 -368 -76 -167 0 -236 14 -368 76 -213 98 -373 271 -451 485 -162 444 86 934 547 1084 153 49 292 57 452 25z m909 -232 c222 -123 408 -262 593 -441 76 -74 138 -139 138 -144 0 -16 -233 -242 -330 -319 -155 -123 -309 -223 -461 -299 l-81 -41 32 46 c18 26 49 83 70 128 143 306 141 649 -6 957 -25 52 -61 116 -79 142 l-34 47 45 -20 c26 -10 76 -36 113 -56z m-2057 25 c-40 -58 -105 -190 -130 -263 -110 -324 -59 -707 132 -981 25 -35 42 -64 37 -64 -19 0 -241 119 -326 174 -188 122 -406 314 -532 468 l-58 71 108 103 c185 178 428 349 672 473 66 33 121 60 123 61 2 0 -10 -19 -26 -42z\"\/><path d=\"M2375 1950 c-198 -44 -350 -190 -395 -379 -18 -76 -8 -221 19 -290 114 -284 457 -406 731 -260 98 52 188 154 231 260 27 69 37 214 19 290 -38 163 -166 304 -326 360 -67 23 -215 33 -279 19z\"\/><\/g><\/svg><\/i> &nbsp;1,046&nbsp;total views<\/p><div class=\"pvc_clear\"><\/div>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"http:\/\/obcanskymonitoring.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/ios.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http:\/\/obcanskymonitoring.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/ios.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6978\" width=\"102\" height=\"34\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>V\u00a0posledn\u00ed dob\u011b se se\u0161lo n\u011bkolik situac\u00ed, kdy n\u00e1m vl\u00e1da p\u0159edest\u00edr\u00e1 term\u00edny toho \u010di onoho v\u00a0budoucnosti zna\u010dn\u011b vzd\u00e1len\u00e9ho, a aktivist\u00e9 to rozporuj\u00ed a \u017e\u00e1daj\u00ed jin\u00e9. Nam\u00e1tkou zm\u00edn\u00edm evergreen jadern\u00e1 \u00falo\u017ei\u0161t\u011b, nov\u011b dostavbu Dukovan \u010di ukon\u010den\u00ed uheln\u00e9 energetiky. Vzduchem l\u00edtaj\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla a spory se vedou o jednotky let, a\u017e \u010dlov\u011bka napad\u00e1: Jak v\u011bd\u00ed, \u017ee t\u0159i roky je m\u00e1lo a p\u011bt sta\u010d\u00ed? Jak se to p\u0159ijde na to, \u017ee v\u00a0roce 2043 ano, ale 2038 ne (pop\u0159. naopak)?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Zajist\u00e9 i v\u00e1s napadlo, jak se stanovuj\u00ed term\u00edny, kdy se m\u00e1 n\u011bco dobudovat nebo p\u0159estat t\u011b\u017eit, nebo jak\u00e9 m\u00e1 m\u00edt jist\u00e9 kon\u00e1n\u00ed parametry. Co jsme v&nbsp;EU, m\u00e1me potvrzen\u00e9, \u017ee jde o specifikum dan\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edmu \u0161imlovi, kter\u00fd m\u00e1 r\u00e1d jist\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem hezk\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla, zejm\u00e9na ta dob\u0159e pamatovateln\u00e1. Jak jsem osobn\u011b zjistil a ov\u011b\u0159il, principy metodiky \u00fa\u0159ednictvo taj\u00ed (tajen\u00ed informac\u00ed je z\u00e1kladn\u00ed princip \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edkova byt\u00ed: jen ten, kdo m\u00e1 informace, kter\u00e9 jin\u00ed nemaj\u00ed, si sv\u00e9 m\u00edsto udr\u017e\u00ed).<\/p>\n\n\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n\n\n<p>V&nbsp;roce 2008 vypadlo z EU pravidlo 20-20-20, kter\u00e9 pro zem\u011b EU ur\u010dilo \u201edo roku 2020 sn\u00ed\u017eit emise sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plyn\u016f o 20 % (proti roku 1990), zv\u00fd\u0161it pod\u00edl obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f energi\u00ed na 20 % a zv\u00fd\u0161it energetickou \u00fa\u010dinnost o 20 %\u201c. To je dokonce vizu\u00e1ln\u011b n\u00e1dhern\u00e9 pravidlo \u201e20-20-20-20-20\u201c, div\u00edm se, \u017ee si to tehdy nechali ut\u00e9ct. Sice nen\u00ed moc p\u016fvodn\u00ed, proto\u017ee existuje star\u0161\u00ed ergonometrick\u00e1 varianta proti \u00fanav\u011b: \u201eco 20 minut se odvr\u00e1t\u00edte od monitoru a po dobu 20 sekund budete pozorovat objekt vzd\u00e1len\u00fd 20 stop\u201c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>P\u0159ed n\u011bjakou dobou padl (tedy byl stanoven, bohu\u017eel nepadl) term\u00edn pro stanoven\u00ed skoncov\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0uhl\u00edm v\u00a0na\u0161\u00ed zemi, rok 2038. V\u00a0nab\u00eddce byly je\u0161t\u011b dva \u2013 2033 a 2043 (p\u011btilet\u00fd odstup poch\u00e1z\u00ed z\u0159ejm\u011b od star\u0161\u00edch politik\u016f pamatuj\u00edc\u00edch p\u011btiletku, mo\u017en\u00e1 i od po\u010dtu prst\u016f na ruce pro ty slab\u0161\u00ed v\u00a0matematice), ale nepro\u0161ly. Obr\u00e1til jsem se tedy na experta p\u016fsob\u00edc\u00edho dlouh\u00e1 l\u00e9ta v\u00a0energetice na vysok\u00e9m postu, jestli by mi neud\u011blal \u0161kolen\u00ed. Pod p\u0159\u00edslibem p\u0159\u00edsn\u00e9 anonymity a ml\u010den\u00ed jsem se dov\u011bd\u011bl, jak to s\u00a0daty pro budoucnost je:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>term\u00edn by m\u011bl b\u00fdt dost daleko v\u00a0budoucnosti \u2013 ale ne zas p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 daleko, v\u00a0z\u00e1vislosti na ud\u00e1losti, kter\u00e9 se t\u00fdk\u00e1. Nap\u0159\u00edklad konec uhl\u00ed v 2038 vypad\u00e1 docela re\u00e1ln\u011b, zat\u00edmco trval\u00e9 \u00falo\u017ei\u0161t\u011b jadern\u00e9ho odpadu je mnohem slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, proto m\u00e1 term\u00edn 2065.<\/li><li>term\u00edn by m\u011bl ur\u010dit\u011b p\u0159ekro\u010dit volebn\u00ed obdob\u00ed dan\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy a nejl\u00e9pe i t\u00e9 n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed (nev\u00ed se, jestli nebude pokra\u010dovat). V\u00edc ne\u017e dv\u011b a\u017e t\u0159i volebn\u00ed obdob\u00ed nikdo nevydr\u017e\u00ed, tak\u017ee se to nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00e9 rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed nech\u00e1 pro opozi\u010dn\u00ed \u201e\u0161mejdy\u201c.<\/li><li>pro osobu stanovuj\u00edc\u00ed term\u00edn je ur\u010dit\u011b dob\u0159e, kdy\u017e v dob\u011b napln\u011bn\u00ed term\u00ednu u\u017e nebude mezi n\u00e1mi. S uhl\u00edm to sice nevy\u0161lo, tady se n\u011bkdo dopustil chyby (kterou mu patrn\u011b stejn\u011b nikdo nevy\u010dte), ale uveden\u00e9 \u00falo\u017ei\u0161t\u011b nestihne pohodln\u011b ani \u0159ada perspektivn\u00edch politik\u016f.<\/li><li>\u010d\u00edslo roku nesm\u00ed b\u00fdt vizu\u00e1ln\u011b n\u00e1padn\u00e9, tud\u00ed\u017e \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 des\u00edtkov\u00e9 \u2013 p\u011btkov\u00e9 je lep\u0161\u00ed na del\u0161\u00ed obdob\u00ed (\u00falo\u017ei\u0161t\u011b), ale 2038 t\u0159eba u uhl\u00ed vypad\u00e1 velice sofistikovan\u011b. Souvis\u00ed to s\u00a0t\u00edm, jak mysl vn\u00edm\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla: \u010d\u00edm jsou slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, t\u00edm vypadaj\u00ed u\u010den\u011bji. Je to podobn\u00e9 jako Ba\u0165ova cena za zbo\u017e\u00ed (129,90) \u2013 v\u011bt\u0161ina lid\u00ed \u0159ekne, \u017ee zaplatila 120, m\u00e1lokdo \u017ee 130.<\/li><li>k term\u00ednu se hlavn\u011b nesm\u011bj\u00ed v\u00e1zat \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 \u201etvrd\u00e9 podm\u00ednky\u201c \u2013 je jedno, jestli se jedn\u00e1 o data nebo z\u00e1konem upraven\u00e9 podm\u00ednky. Je to v\u0161ak dvouse\u010dn\u00e9, n\u011bkdy se to hod\u00ed, n\u011bkdy ne, viz aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed PES. Skv\u011bl\u00e1 v\u011bc p\u0159i brzd\u011bn\u00ed epidemi\u00ed, pokud se ov\u0161em zase nerozjedou. Neposkytuje to pot\u0159ebnou flexibilitu, kter\u00e1 je u slo\u017eit\u00fdch z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed nesm\u00edrn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1.<\/li><li>flexibilita je tak\u00e9 d\u016fvod, pro\u010d je vhodn\u00e9 m\u00edt pat\u0159i\u010dn\u011b vzd\u00e1len\u00fd term\u00edn \u2013 prost\u011b se nev\u00ed&#8230; Problematick\u00e9 je stanoven\u00ed toho term\u00ednu t\u0159eba u zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9ho uhl\u00ed: pro\u010d ne 2039 nebo 2037? To nikdo nevysv\u011btl\u00ed a ani to nejde! Podstatn\u00e9 je, aby se datum tv\u00e1\u0159ilo seri\u00f3zn\u011b (p\u0159itom jde o politick\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed). S\u00a0t\u00edm nelze dost dob\u0159e polemizovat a je to OK. Jedin\u00e1 mo\u017enost pro zm\u011bnu je zvolit jin\u00e9 politiky, kte\u0159\u00ed \u0159eknou, \u017ee cht\u011bj\u00ed s\u00a0uhl\u00edm skon\u010dit d\u0159\u00edve\/pozd\u011bji.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Asi dva nejlep\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edklady pro stanoven\u00ed term\u00ednu a jak se m\u011bn\u00ed, jsou dostavba d\u00e1lnici s\u00edt\u011b a metro D. Tolik \u010d\u00edsel u\u017e jsme vid\u011bli a v\u0161echna v\u00edcem\u00e9n\u011b spl\u0148uj\u00ed uveden\u00e9 p\u0159edpoklady.<\/p>\n<div data-counters='1' data-style='square' data-size='regular' data-url='https:\/\/obcanskymonitoring.cz\/?p=7154' data-title='Odhad dalek\u00e9 budoucnosti' class='linksalpha_container linksalpha_app_3'><a href='\/\/www.linksalpha.com\/share?network='facebook' class='linksalpha_icon_facebook'><\/a><a href='\/\/www.linksalpha.com\/share?network='twitter' class='linksalpha_icon_twitter'><\/a><a href='\/\/www.linksalpha.com\/share?network='googleplus' class='linksalpha_icon_googleplus'><\/a><a href='\/\/www.linksalpha.com\/share?network='mail' class='linksalpha_icon_mail'><\/a><\/div><div data-position='' data-url='https:\/\/obcanskymonitoring.cz\/?p=7154' data-title='Odhad dalek\u00e9 budoucnosti' class='linksalpha_container linksalpha_app_7'><a href='\/\/www.linksalpha.com\/share?network='facebook' class='linksalpha_icon_facebook'><\/a><a href='\/\/www.linksalpha.com\/share?network='twitter' class='linksalpha_icon_twitter'><\/a><a href='\/\/www.linksalpha.com\/share?network='googleplus' class='linksalpha_icon_googleplus'><\/a><a href='\/\/www.linksalpha.com\/share?network='mail' class='linksalpha_icon_mail'><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;1,046&nbsp;total views V\u00a0posledn\u00ed dob\u011b se se\u0161lo n\u011bkolik situac\u00ed, kdy n\u00e1m vl\u00e1da p\u0159edest\u00edr\u00e1 term\u00edny toho \u010di onoho v\u00a0budoucnosti zna\u010dn\u011b vzd\u00e1len\u00e9ho, a aktivist\u00e9 to rozporuj\u00ed a \u017e\u00e1daj\u00ed jin\u00e9. Nam\u00e1tkou zm\u00edn\u00edm evergreen jadern\u00e1 \u00falo\u017ei\u0161t\u011b, nov\u011b dostavbu Dukovan \u010di ukon\u010den\u00ed uheln\u00e9 energetiky. Vzduchem l\u00edtaj\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla a spory se vedou o jednotky let, a\u017e \u010dlov\u011bka napad\u00e1: Jak v\u011bd\u00ed, \u017ee t\u0159i [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[35,40,32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/obcanskymonitoring.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7154"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/obcanskymonitoring.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/obcanskymonitoring.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/obcanskymonitoring.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/obcanskymonitoring.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7154"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/obcanskymonitoring.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7154\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7155,"href":"https:\/\/obcanskymonitoring.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7154\/revisions\/7155"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/obcanskymonitoring.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7154"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/obcanskymonitoring.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7154"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/obcanskymonitoring.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7154"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}